Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 33.134172 35.726552 38.539371 41.839068 45.631339 49.887333 55.074172
2025-05-04 29.508495 33.017317 37.074271 42.187950 48.576751 56.462837 67.221047
2025-05-11 26.952501 30.861518 35.567894 41.791163 50.035543 60.960924 77.280622
2025-05-18 24.944190 29.041034 34.121816 41.087499 50.749190 64.321394 86.266525
2025-05-25 23.316206 27.500041 32.811327 40.308867 51.113681 67.077037 94.826852
2025-06-01 22.021401 26.258232 31.744700 39.688324 51.532386 69.863435 104.045532
2025-06-08 20.776871 24.983310 30.514930 38.685492 51.206476 71.346827 111.264519
2025-06-15 20.424606 24.855357 30.812194 39.871491 54.336064 79.034805 133.135572
2025-06-22 19.699224 24.168880 30.270001 39.740208 55.312494 83.110221 149.016822
2025-06-29 18.900132 23.333006 29.454798 39.109066 55.358004 85.430794 161.735523
2025-07-06 18.046644 22.378495 28.411003 38.034549 54.511504 85.845772 169.694298
2025-07-13 17.846197 22.327116 28.672923 39.036008 57.419911 94.465934 206.298061
2025-07-20 17.578268 22.178436 28.798948 39.860297 60.191215 103.707885 254.407324
2025-07-27 17.198582 21.849649 28.632739 40.183837 62.067909 111.487288 307.192646
2025-08-03 16.684399 21.298971 28.091854 39.817569 62.525256 115.901454 351.680157
2025-08-10 16.142304 20.684114 27.418505 39.167523 62.320615 118.550626 391.876153
2025-08-17 15.620937 20.080130 26.733241 38.447568 61.886691 120.494801 432.576012
2025-08-24 15.164622 19.556890 26.151741 37.873294 61.699880 123.141000 485.878482
2025-08-31 14.658754 18.942512 25.399741 36.944301 60.645395 122.981220 517.800850
2025-09-07 14.607665 19.012279 25.745771 38.042850 64.228000 138.457662 775.692052
2025-09-14 14.311506 18.696427 25.449331 37.921327 65.007367 145.092010 988.660178
2025-09-21 13.940551 18.253731 24.926436 37.336829 64.625162 147.525516 1161.447539
2025-09-28 13.507898 17.704155 24.208302 36.340665 63.157212 145.572277 1225.421938